Team Biden is actually saying today that there is ‘no scenario’ under which Trump will be declared the victor on election night:
"With our advantage coming into North Carolina . . . we believe that Trump is going to need 62% of the votes on Election Day in order to win," O'Malley Dillon says.
— Dave Catanese (@davecatanese) November 2, 2020
That’s quite the absolute statement that should raise red flags with reporters and pundits everywhere, who’ve been very ‘concerned’ about Trump refusing to concede the election if he loses. It sounds to me that Team Biden is already telegraphing that they will refuse to concede, so I’m sure MSM reporters and pundits will be all over that stat.
Meanwhile, Trump’s campaign manager cuts through the bluster and explains the math on why Trump will have a victory tomorrow night:
So there has been a lot of bluster, from pollsters and pundits, about what we should expect tomorrow.
President Trump has the momentum in this race and the math available to him to win on Election Day.
🚨 👇 THREAD 👇 🚨
— BillStepien (@BillStepien) November 2, 2020
President Trump is ahead of where he was in 2016, by a very key measure.
It’s the measure that actually matters. Votes cast, and votes left to be cast.
You’ve been seeing reports of Democrats being nervous, and well, they should be.
— BillStepien (@BillStepien) November 2, 2020
Let’s start in Ohio, where Joe Biden is wasting a few hours today.
Weeks ago the partisan makeup of the electorate was D +10, today it’s D +0.6.
Going into E Day in 2016, the gap was D +2.5.
Pres. Trump has a projected Election Day votes cast margin of over 400k net votes.
— BillStepien (@BillStepien) November 2, 2020
Pres. Trump rallied in North Carolina this morning.
Democrats jumped out to a D +32 advantage during AB only voting. Today it’s D +5.8.
Going into Election Day in 2016, the gap was D +9.7.
Pres. Trump has a projected Election Day votes cast margin of over 400k net votes.
— BillStepien (@BillStepien) November 2, 2020
Pres. Trump and Biden are then heading to Pennsylvania.
Dems have banked A TON of high propensity voters. We have millions of voters left.
Pres. Trump’s E Day margin needs to be significant and we project an Election Day votes cast margin of over a million for Pres. Trump.
— BillStepien (@BillStepien) November 2, 2020
Don Jr. is in AZ today to etch the state into our win column.
Weeks ago the makeup of the electorate was D +11.9, today it’s D +1.2. Reminder: going into E Day in 2016, the gap was D +2.5.
Pres. Trump has a projected Election Day votes cast margin of over 150k net votes.
— BillStepien (@BillStepien) November 2, 2020
What about Florida?
Democrats jumped out to a D +18.8 advantage during AB-only voting. Today it’s D +1.
Going into Election Day in 2016, the gap was D +1.4.
President Trump has a projected Election Day votes cast margin of over 500k net votes.
— BillStepien (@BillStepien) November 2, 2020
In the states listed by Stepien, Trafalgar’s final polling is in: Trump is +5 in Ohio, +2 in North Carolina, +2 in Pennsylvania, +3 in Arizona, and +3 in Florida as of last week. All of this remains to be seen, but if both Stepien and Trafalgar’s analysis comes true, election night could go swimmingly for Trump. But none if it will happen if people don’t vote, so make sure you vote tomorrow if you haven’t already.