I don’t think Trump is going to like this report from the Pentagon, which says that ISIS will reemerge in Syria in six to twelve months without sustained counterterrorism pressure:
CBS NEWS – The U.S. military believes that “absent sustained pressure” on the Islamic State, ISIS could re-emerge in Syria within six to 12 months, according to a new Department of Defense Inspector General report on Operation Inherent Resolve.
According to the Pentagon, while U.S.-backed Syrian forces have continued the fight to retake the remaining ISIS strongholds in Syria, ISIS remains a “potent force of battle-hardened and well-disciplined fighters that could likely resurge in Syria absent continued counterterrorism pressure,” the report reads.
The report notes that currently ISIS is “regenerating key functions and capabilities more quickly in Iraq than Syria.” ISIS also retains the ability to coordinate offensives and counteroffensives. And it is able to operate despite its lost territory, as a “decentralized insurgency,” the report says.
The administration policy is to maintain pressure on ISIS, even with the withdrawal of American troops. President Trump announced in December that the military would withdraw from Syria, but according to the Defense Department, approximately 2,000 ISIS fighters remained where U.S. forced had previously been operating.
ISIS fighters in that region were described by operation officials as “battle-experienced, hardened and well disciplined.”
Here’s the actual quotation from the report itself:
ISIS may conduct opportunistic attacks on U.S. personnel as they withdraw but will leverage the event as a “victory” in its media. ISIS remains an active insurgent group in both Iraq and Syria. If Sunni socio-economic, political, and sectarian grievances are not adequately addressed by the national and local governments of Iraq and Syria it is very likely that ISIS will have the opportunity to set conditions for future resurgence and territorial control. Currently, ISIS is regenerating key functions and capabilities more quickly in Iraq than in Syria, but absent sustained [counterterrorism] pressure, ISIS could likely resurge in Syria within six to twelve months and regain limited territory in the [Middle Euphrates River Valley (MERV)].3
This is just another reason why we shouldn’t pull out of Syria. But I think this is a role that Trump is hoping to pass off to Turkey, so I’m not sure how much this report will really mean to him.
Obama refused to listen to his intelligence and helped create ISIS. The media never really gave him the appropriate credit, but that is what happened. Trump really should heed the advice of his military and intelligence officials when it comes to ISIS, and rescind his comments on withdrawal.
You can read the full report below: