Want some fudge with that? Jobless claims fall to lowest in four years, but not because they actually fell



The big headline from today is that U.S. jobless claims fall to lowest in four and a half years. Sounds great doesn’t it? Yes, it’s too good to be true. Even BLS isn’t defending the number, noting that one large state failed to report some of their quarterly state figures. Hmmm. I wonder which big blue state did that. California maybe?

ZERO HEDGE – This is just getting stupid. After expectations of a rebound in initial claims from 367K last week (naturally revised higher to 369K), to 370K (with the lowest of all sellside expectations at 355K), the past week mysteriously, yet so very unsurprisingly in the aftermath of the fudged BLS unemployment number, saw claims tumble to a number that is so ridiculous not even CNBC’s Steve Liesman bothered defending it, or 339K. Ironically, not even the Labor Department is defending it: it said that “one large state didn’t report some quarterly figures.” Great, but what was reported was a headline grabbing number that is just stunning for reelection purposes. This was the lowest number since 2008. The only point to have this print? For 2-3 bulletin talking points at the Vice Presidential debate tonight. Everything else is now noise.

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39 thoughts on “Want some fudge with that? Jobless claims fall to lowest in four years, but not because they actually fell

  1. First , the unemployment rate drops because people drop completely out of the workforce, then the unemployment rate drops because they use a highly volatile Household Survey that no one ever depends on, and finally the unemployment numbers drop because some (blue) state decides not to supply their numbers.

    I can hardly wait till next month to see what new and improved fudgesickle they come up with. I thought I’d heard it all.

  2. My inexpert analysis:

    1) Business Insider (which seems to lean hard left) claims that the report definitely included all states,

    HOWEVER: “It is likely that some of the jobless claims in one large state–California–were not included in the claims reported to the Department of Labor this week.”

    A distinction without a difference does not a difference make.

    2) More facts about the supposed drop from Alex Kowalski at Bloomberg (via SFGate):

    Last week’s decline in claims may be short-lived. Before adjusting the data for seasonal variations, claims typically surge at the start of a quarter as people receiving benefits reapply in order for the government to recertify their applications, the Labor Department spokesman said.

    The unadjusted increase in claims last week was smaller than projected because one large state showed a drop rather than an increase, said the spokesman, who declined to name the state. The breakdown by state will show up in next week’s report.

    Emphasis mine. So this report is a)unadjusted for quarterly factors known to affect the data it claims to be tracking, and b)is mostly due to a strong economy in one large state

    This gets confusing. California apparently did report a reduction in jobless claims.

    So…

    3) Some states are indeed firing or laying off fewer workers. Note that this is not the same track of data as “hiring or planning to hire new workers.” It’s just that the killin’ has taken hold reel good now, and the bleeding has slowed now that the corpse is room temperature.

    4) The markets know this for a fact, this is why IBD reports: “Stocks Start Firm On Low Jobless Claims, Then Taper Off”

    In other words, they ain’t buyin’ it as great economic news.

    5) So my final take on it is, hey if it’s true that businesses are slowing their reductions in force, it’s probably due to the fact that they all fully expect Obama to be replaced soon.

    1. …businesses are slowing their reductions in force…

      Or maybe it’s because there is nobody left to lay off.

  3. We are experiencing what it’s like to live in a communist country where the government controlled media spouts whatever the statists tell them to. Just imagine what it will be like with 4 more years of socialist freedom killing policies Obama has planned for us all and he will be free to do whatever he wants without having to worry about getting re-elected. We have a Dictator not a President but the drones can’t see the truth thanks to the Commi administration, news, and everything on TV. Romney or bloody revolution!

  4. True professionals would not have published a number today becasue of missing data … the BLS is showing their true colors …

  5. The unemployment office while working on math problems, tutored by Obama:

    1 + 1 = 246? Uh uh, try again please. Ok… 1 + 1 = 328? No… take your time and figure it out. Alright. 1 + 1 = 4872? Carry the 87… Oh! Got it! 1 + 1 = 48235! Close enough.

    What a joke this has all become.

  6. Why try to work or look when the welfare state is expanding?
    Not a suggestion, but how some people think.

    The significance to employment figures is that the labor force [as % of pop] is smaller & is not even accurately measured per BLS standards, because only those actively searching are counted.

    The U6 [unemployment] rate at about 15%, is a better measure, counting more people whom want jobs, but still short of an actual ~20%, if including those able to work, instead of getting proceeds from taxpayer confiscation.

    And those here illegally…adding 1%+ to unemployment by displacing jobs? Plus requiring more gov expense?

  7. Nooooo, Dems wouldn’t fudget he numbers would they? Intentionally not reporting bad numbers is the same as manipulating and fudging them. No proof, but it’s funny how these things happen all the time at just the right time for the left.

    1. We’ve got one more Monthly report before the Election. It will be out at 8:30 am, Friday, November 2, 2012, four days before the election. Set your reminder.

  8. Mrs. WFM suggested that BLS should have put an asterisk by the 7.8% figure, you know like the asterisk for the home run hitters who pumped up the numbers with steroids and probably Lance Armstrong who will be remembered in history as Lance Arnstrong*.

    We probably need to think about putting an asterisk next to Obama’s face in the history books too. Seems like asterisking is a new American tradition.

  9. I just saw this fantastic ad and story on Legal Insurrection. The ad is from Thomas Peterffy, a Connecticut businessman who was born in Hungary in 1944, came to America in 1965 and became a great success. He is footing the bill himself to put this ad on cable but I think it should be running everywhere.

  10. I would like to see a report on how many people fell off welfare, food stamp, and disability. then I might be impressed with job #’s. Otherwise it doesn’t mean much at all.

  11. “one large state didn’t report some quarterly figures.”

    That is like running a headline that the Orioles won the game last night if you only count the first eight innings.

  12. Jobless claims are no indication of how many jobless there are. Many people have run out of unemployment benefits. This just means the number of long term unemployed has gotten worse. There are many people stupid enough to believe that this means there are more jobs even if they are still looking for a job themselves. Thankfully they are in the minority.

  13. …come November 7,2012 all these POLLS , UNEMPLOYMENT NUMBERS will not matter even though Mitt Romney WINS the election your Dear Leader Mao Hussein Obama will just DECLARE himself President for LIFE .”

  14. Actually – It again shows what a phony HE is

    BUT

    THIS is FUNNY >>

    The Wise Old Man and the Marine

    One sunny day in January, 2013, an old man approached the White House from across Pennsylvania Avenue where he’d been sitting on a park bench.

    He spoke to the U.S. Marine standing guard and said, “I would like to go in and meet with President Obama.”

    The Marine looked at the man and said, “Sir, Mr. Obama is no longer President and no longer resides here.”

    The old man said, “Okay,” and walked away. The following day the same man approached the White House and said to the same Marine, “I would like to go in and meet with President Obama.”

    The Marine again told the man, “Sir, as I said yesterday, Mr. Obama is no longer President and no longer resides here.”

    The man thanked him and again just walked away. The third day the same man approached the White House and spoke to the very same U.S. Marine, saying, “I would like to go in and meet with President Obama.”The Marine, understandably agitated at this point, looked at the man and said, “Sir, this is the third day in a row you have been here asking to speak to Mr. Obama. I’ve told you already that Mr. Obama is no longer the President and no longer resides here. Don’t you understand?”

    “Oh, I understand, I just love hearing it!”

    The Marine snapped to attention, saluted,

    and said, “See you tomorrow, Sir.”

    1. Got another one for ya,

      A Marine is sitting in his summer college class when his athiest, marxist professor says in front of the class, “God, if you exist I want you to knock me off of this stage in the next 15 minutes.” He continues to teach his class……

      14 minutes later, the Marine rises from his seat, walks to the front of the class and punches the prof full in the face causing him to fly off of the stage and onto the floor. When he finally recovers consiousness he asks the Marine, “What the hell was that for?”

      The Marine answers, “God was busy. He sent me instead.”

        1. I saw that on Fox too. The youngest and lowliest rank holding Marines tend to carry GIANT hearts. Great story, I’m sorry the kid didn’t get to finish on his own and I hope someone provides a better prosthetic for him to compete in next year.
          Semper Fi, young man. Keep at it.

  15. This is amazing. These people keep putting these bogus numbers out and nobody believes them. Why do they keep doing it?

    1. There are are a large percentage of idiots that will believe the BS from Obama and his lap-dog media. Smart people know what is going on but unfortunately only about 60% of our population cares to know the truth. I will also add that the truth can’t be found on TV with one exception Fox News Cable.

  16. Rush said……..California……..largest population wise.
    A bureaucratic snafu……no conspiracy.

      1. Ryan is so good with the math, tonight he’ll probably be able to explain how the figures would read if the Cali. numbers were taken into account. This “economic stuff” is right up his alley.

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