Kellyanne Conway was asked this morning who Trump is citing when he says that most economists say the economy is not headed for a recession, and she responded by ripping the media for only focusing on Trump’s economy when there’s talk of a recession:
"The fact is, the fundamentals of our economy are very strong," White House counselor Kellyanne Conway says, amid economic signs that some say point toward a possible recession. https://t.co/NUACkQeVTF pic.twitter.com/6EOczwngAk
— ABC News (@ABC) August 19, 2019
I was impressed with how Conway handled this question about Trump’s economists, because the question itself was kind of ridiculous. The premise of the question was that most economists believe a recession is coming and that Trump must be lying when he says most economists aren’t predicting a recession.
Just last Friday, an analyst on MSNBC said that the signs just aren’t there indicating that a recession is coming and that the media shouldn’t be rooting for a recession:
“Not to put cold water on this … The signs of recession are not exactly overwhelming,” he said. “There was the inverted yield curve that everybody was talking about yesterday … Germany is down. China is down. Those things are not good, but the U.S economy is relatively buoyant, so I just don’t think we should be rooting for a recession, because that’s not good for America.”
“I also don’t think it’s really in the cards,” he added. “I’m not an economist, but there aren’t that many signs out there that a recession is on the horizon.”
The inverted yield curve has been a reliable predictor in the past for a recession. However it would need to last for months and months, according to CNBC:
There have been five inversions of the 2-year and 10-year yields since 1978 and all were precursors to a recession, but there is a significant lag, according to data from Credit Suisse. A recession occurred, on average, 22 months after the inversion, Credit Suisse shows.
22 months! Yet we have an inverted yield curve for one day last week and people are already freaking out as if the next great depression is about to hit?
It just shows you how disingenuous most in the media are when it comes to truth and reality. If this were Obama’s economy, I guarantee you the media would have played off that inverted yield curve as no biggie. But with Trump they want a recession because they hope it will damage his chances of winning next year.