The Trafalgar Group pollster last night predicted a Trump victory on Hannity, and as Sean Hannity reminded everyone, they were right about the 2016 Trump victory as well:
Robert Cahaly told Sean Hannity that the key to Trump winning is this hidden Trump vote. He notes that some Trump Supporters won’t tell the truth if they don’t feel their answers are completely anonymous, out of fear of some kind of retribution, and pollsters must compensate for this to get truer answers.
Here’s more from Joe Concha at The Hill:
Trafalgar Group chief pollster Robert Cahaly told Fox News host Sean Hannity on Tuesday night he sees President Trump being reelected, citing a “hidden vote” Cahaly says is predominantly missing from polling showing Democratic nominee Joe Biden leading nationally and in most swing states.
Trafalgar Group’s polling in 2016 showed Trump leading in key battleground states including Pennsylvania and Michigan when almost all other pollsters had the Republican nominee trailing Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton. Trump ended up wining both of those states and Wisconsin, becoming the first GOP presidential nominee to do so in decades.
“I see the president winning with a minimum high 270s and possibly going up significantly higher based on just how big this undercurrent is,” Cahaly said, referring to Electoral College votes. A candidate needs 270 electoral votes to win the White House.
“What we’ve noticed is that these polls are predominantly missing the hidden Trump vote. There is a clear feeling among conservatives and people that are for the president that they’re not interested in sharing their opinions readily,” he added. “These people are more hesitant to participate in polls. So if you’re not compensating for this, you’re not going to get honest answers.”
A number of news organizations see Biden as the clear favorite in the race given his lead in national polls and most polls of key swing states.
The website FiveThirtyEight gives Biden an 88 percent chance of winning on Nov. 3. On Oct. 20, 2016, FiveThirtyEight gave Clinton an 87 percent chance of winning.
At the beginning of the video Hannity lays out where Trafalgar has Trump v Biden in swing states, so be sure and check that out.