Where Trump stands in the Battleground states, according to Trafalgar Group

Trafalgar Group accurately predicted that Trump would win in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida and North Carolina in 2016. So given today is one of the last days of polling, let’s see where Robert Cahaly’s group has the polling in the six Battleground states:

 
FLORIDA: 29 EV
RCP average: Biden +1.2

Trafalgar Group’s latest poll from yesterday has Trump up +3. He’s not alone, with Susquehanna putting Trump up by +4 several days ago and Rasmussen the same about 10 days ago.

 
PENNSYLVANIA: 20 EV
RCP average: Biden +3.6

Trafalgar Group’s last poll from 5 days ago showed a TIE. Inside Advantage showed Trump up +2.

 
MICHIGAN: 16 EV
RCP average: Biden +6.5

Trafalgar Group’s latest poll from yesterday has Trump up +2. No one else shows Trump winning Michigan.

 
WISCONSIN: 10 EV
RCP average: Biden +6.4

Trafalgar Group’s latest poll from Wednesday shows Biden +1. Susquehanna showed a TIE ten days ago.

 
NORTH CAROLINA: 15 EV
RCP average: Biden +0.6



Trafalgar Group’s latest poll from seven days ago showed Trump +3. Rasmussen showed Trump +1 from the same time period and two other recent polls show a TIE.

 
ARIZONA: 11 EV
RCP average: TIE

Trafalgar Group’s latest poll was from the beginning of October and showed Trump +4. It is not factored into the RCP average. Rasmussen’s poll from yesterday also shows Trump up +4 and Susquehanna’s poll from seven days ago showed Trump up +1.

OTHER IMPORTANT STATES

OHIO: 18 EV
RCP average: TIE

Trafalgar Group’s latest poll was from early October showing Trump +4. Fox News had a poll ten days ago showing Trump +3 and Rasmussen, from the same time period, showed Biden +1.

 
MINNESOTA: 10 EV
RCP average: Biden +4.7

Minnesota is not considered a battleground state by RCP and all October polling shows Trump winning. Trafalgar Group’s latest poll from this week shows Biden +3 and is the lowest of recent polling.

 
TEXAS: 38 EV
RCP average: Trump +2.3

Texas is considered a toss-up by RCP. Trafalgar’s last polling there was from August and most polling in the month of October shows Trump between +4 and +7, with one outlier showing Biden +3 and another showing a TIE. Rasmussen showed Trump +7 in early October.

 
GEORGIA: 16 EV
RCP average: Biden +0.4

Trafalgar Group’s latest poll for Georgia was back in July. The two latest polls show Biden +2 and +4. Another poll from a week ago showed a TIE and two polls from the same time frame showed Trump +4 and +1.

 
NEVADA: 6 EV
RCP average: Biden +4

Trafalgar Group’s latest poll from today shows Biden +2. Las Vegas Review-Journal’s poll from earlier this month also showed Biden +2. The only other two polls from October show Biden +6.

 
IOWA: 6 EV
RCP average: Biden +1.2

Trafalgar Group doesn’t have a poll for Iowa this year. The only two polls from this week show Trump +1 and Biden +4. Middle October polls show Trump +2, Biden +3 and a TIE.

Comment Policy: Please read our comment policy before making a comment. In short, please be respectful of others and do not engage in personal attacks. Otherwise we will revoke your comment privileges.