On Friday we reported to you that Democrats were freaking out because Republicans were beating Democrats in voter turnout in Miami-Dade county, a Democrat stronghold, by 6 points:
“To date, Republicans have turned out 59 percent of their voters in Miami-Dade and Democrats have turned out 53 percent, a 6-point margin. That’s twice the margin Republicans had at this point in 2016.”
Remember, Hillary won this county big with 624,146 votes, whereas Trump only got 333,999.
The Republican turnout lead was 6 points on Friday and has now increased to 8 points as of today:
Miami-Dade: There’s a Republican red-flashing warning sign from the state’s largest county. As of Monday morning, a higher share of the county’s Republicans (72%) have turned out than Democrats (64.3%).
It’s imperative for Democratic hopes that they push more of their voters to the polls, although they do have lead in the county, which has far more Democrats than Republicans.
As of Monday morning, 308,594 Republican ballots had been cast in Miami-Dade, compared to 408,032. The Democrats have a lead of about 100,000.
Turnout among Republicans in Miami-Dade County is running 6.18 percentage points higher than the statewide Republican turnout. Turnout among Miami-Dade Democrats is running 4.92 points below the party’s statewide turnout.
Notice that Trump only received about 340k votes in 2016. But now, in 2020 early voting, he’s potentially already received 309k votes (assuming all those are Trump votes). That’s 92% of 2016’s total votes, just in early voting. If Republican turnout trends continue to outpace Democrats tomorrow, Trump will end up with way more than the paltry 340k votes he got in 2016 and Biden won’t be anywhere close to having the fat 285k winning margin Hillary had.
Just to be clear, Biden will more than likely win Miami-Dade. But that’s not the point. If Trump can make it a close race in a Democrat stronghold, relative to 2016, that is a victory in of itself. And if a Democrats aren’t turning out in a Democratic stronghold, what does that say for the rest of the country?